Frank Donovan, W3LPL gave a presentation recently to the Madison DX Club titled 'Understanding 6 Meter Sporadic E Propagation'. The talk which is about an hour in length covers Sporadic-E propagation with an emphasis on the 50 MHz (6m) band.
The talk is given from a North American perspective but the distances discussed are applicable to stations in Europe as well.
The talk not only covers single hop Sporadic-E but multi-hop as well as shown in the image above.
Chordal hop propagation refers to where a single Sporadic-E cloud refracts the signal enough that it is able to propagate to the next Sporadic-E cloud instead of relying on a lossy ground bounce.
The talk includes some interesting slides which show the height of the Sporadic-E cloud changing with the time of day. This suggests that the longest single hop distances should occur in the early morning or early evening.
He also expands the discussion to cover Trans-Equatorial Propagation (TEP) whereby stations in the USA can link via Sporadic-E to the TEP zone to the south and then onto to South America.
The same scenario would apply to stations in Europe trying to work South Africa and South America on 6m.
Frank Donovan, W3LPL is one of the top contesters in the USA and is a key forecaster of upcoming conditions on the HF amateur radio bands.
In a recent forecast (April 2021), he made a forecast about how good upcoming Solar Cycle 25 would be based on the Solar Flux numbers at the end of December 2021. I have put together a graphic which shows this above. The starting point for April 2021 is a solar flux index of 77 which is roughly the average for the month.
W3LPL wrote... “If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.
If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.
“If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.”
(SFI = Solar Flux Index)
As with everything on the sun, there is always an amount of uncertainty in solar forecasts but it will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the year and see where we're at.