Monday 13th March 2023: Over the last few weeks, Paul G9PUV in the SE of England and Robbie, EI2IP in the SW of Ireland have been very active on the 40 MHz (8m) band. On the evening of the 13th of March, there was a remarkable opening when their FT8 signals were heard in New Zealand.
The map above shows the direct paths in Purple. The path from EI2IP goes over the Arctic to the west while the path from G9PUV goes east and over the far north of Russia, both highly unlikely paths at a frequency of 40 MHz.
The strange thing is that 40 MHz didn't seem to take the short path or the long path but a skewed path. A suggested path is shown above in Orange but in reality, we'll never know for sure the exact path.
Here are the reception reports from ZL1RS in New Zealand...
 Txmtr	Band	Mode	Distance	Time (UTC)	SNR
WM2XEJ	8m	FT8	13129 km	19:47:26	7
EI2IP	8m	FT8	18096 km	19:35:14	-21
G9PUV	8m	FT8	18206 km	18:54:14	-17
Note that ZL1RS was hearing the the experimental US station WM2XEJ as well at about the same time.
G9PUV: The map above shows the FT8 paths for Paul, G9PUV in the evening time. Note that there was a path also open to the Caribbean about 20 mins after the opening to New Zealand. 
These are the FT8 reports...
Txmtr	Rcvr	Band	Mode	Distance	Time (UTC)	SNR
G9PUV	EA8/DF4UE	8m	FT8	2730 km	19:18:00	-13
G9PUV	EA1TX	8m	FT8	1086 km	19:15:41	-15
G9PUV	FG8OJ	8m	FT8	6618 km	19:14:14	-11
G9PUV	HC02	8m	FT8	1657 km	19:14:14	-17
G9PUV	HI0SDR/3	8m	FT8	6983 km	19:14:00	-17
EA1TX	G9PUV	8m	FT8	1086 km	19:13:59	-14
G9PUV	K6EU	8m	FT8	8704 km	19:00:14	-21
G9PUV	ZL1RS	8m	FT8	18206 km	18:54:14	-17
G9PUV was using a log-periodic antenna at rooftop level and was beaming 195 degrees. The actual beam heading for New Zealand may have been some bit off this.
EI2IP: The map above shows the paths for EI2IP during the evening. Again, note that there was an opening to the Caribbean and the south-east of the USA.
Rcvr	Band	Mode	Distance	Time (UTC)	SNR
FG8OJ	8m	FT8	6092 km	19:52:44	-12
WW1L	8m	FT8	4389 km	19:52:14	-2
K6EU	8m	FT8	8152 km	19:52:12	-11
WM2XCC/JTDX	8m	FT8	8244 km	19:49:58	-19
K1HTV-4	8m	FT8	5390 km	19:40:45	-17
WM2XCC	8m	FT8	8244 km	19:40:44	-20
PJ4MM	8m	FT8	6895 km	19:39:11	-15
EA8/DF4UE	8m	FT8	2676 km	19:37:00	-10
EA1TX	8m	FT8	1223 km	19:36:11	-11
ZL1RS	8m	FT8	18096 km	19:35:14	-21
HC02	8m	FT8	1705 km	19:32:15	-11
N4WLO/3	8m	FT8	6684 km	19:32:14	-17
HI0SDR/3	8m	FT8	6405 km	19:32:00	-12
K5YT	8m	FT8	6935 km	19:19:41	-24
HI0SDR	8m	FT8	6461 km	19:06:30	-19
WM2XEJ	8m	FT8	6135 km	19:06:14	-22
WP4G	8m	FT8	6209 km	19:05:42	-17
N2OTO	8m	FT8	6487 km	19:05:30	-8
EI2IP reports using a 4-element Yagi and was beaming at 200 degrees which is roughly pointing at South America.
WM2XEJ: It's interesting to look at the evening reports and paths for the US experimental station WM2XEJ in Georgia. You'll note that there was a path open both to ZL1RS at 19:47 UTC and to EI2IP at 19:35 UTC.
As you can see from the map above, it's not hard to imagine a situation where the path becomes skewed and then the EI to ZL path becomes possible. In that case, it's likely that the path was in the region of about 19,000kms.
Short Path or Long Path??? ...  Strictly speaking, it was probably a skewed short path for EI2IP and a skewed long path for G9PUV.  The more correct question is probably if the path was skewed or not? The more informative answer is that the path was skewed and learn from that.
Lessons: It's worth remembering that the TEP zone around the Geomagnetic Equator is likely to have a huge impact on any 40 MHz signals crossing it. I would take these points from this...
1) The date... We're in the middle of March and near the equinox.
2) The time... Roughly 18:45 to 20:00 UTC
3) Location... This applies to stations in the north of New Zealand and the NW of Europe.
4) Beam heading... Stations in New Zealand should beam at the Caribbean and stations in the UK and Ireland should beam at the South America or the Caribbean.
5) Skewed Paths.... Forget long path and short paths and direct lines on the map which can go all over the place when the other station is at the other side of the planet. 40 MHz signals are going to have a really tough time crossing over the north or south poles... look for skewed paths where the signal stays as close to the equator as possible.
6) 50 MHz... Any serious 50 MHz operators should be reading this and then trying to explore this path. If it can be done at 40 MHz then maybe 50 MHz is possible?
In conclusion: The Trans-Equatorial Propagation zone around the geomagnetic equator has a huge impact on low band VHF signals on the 40 MHz and 50 MHz bands. In the past, we only really had SSB and CW available in terms of popular modes. Now with so many stations on the one frequency using a weak signal mode like FT8, we can see signals that are buried in the noise. 
There are probably plenty of other skewed paths that are possible. The key is to get out of the fixed mindset of short path and long path and think about beaming at this TEP zone at an angle and see if a signal can propagate inside it or be bent by it.
It's likely the windows of opportunity will be short... the TEP zone ionization needs to be right and there may be sunrise or sunset peaks along the path.
It's likely that there are probably plenty more new skewed paths out there awaiting discovery.
Link... For more information on the 8m band, see my 40 MHz page.