Looking ahead to conditions on 28 MHz - Sept 2019 to March 2020

As the Sporadic-E season in the northern hemisphere winds down, we'll have a quick look at what conditions might be like on 28 MHz for the next six months from September 2019 to March 2020.

Solar Cycle.... As the chart shows below, we are currently at the low point of the sunspot cycle.

The current solar flux is in the 60's and it's highly unlikely that we will see much improvement in the next six months. It may well be the second half of 2020 before we see the real start of the next cycle.

The result of all this is that for northern Europe and North America, the maximum usable frequency will struggle to get above 20 MHz and especially for East-West paths.

The prediction chart for the UK to Brazil in September of 2019 is shown below...

If we were to depend on just the Solar Flux and F2 propagation from the ionosphere then the 28 MHz band would be dead for the next few months.

Sporadic-E... While the main summer Sporadic-E season in the northern hemisphere ends in around August, there will still be occasional openings in the next six months with a slight peak around December.

These openings in themselves are unlikely to be that spectacular. The openings are likely to be in the range of 1200 to 2000 kms which are the most common openings during the summer months. We are unlikely to see any really short short skip (less than 500kms).

The main attraction of these winter Sporadic-E openings is that they can allow access to much better conditions further south.

If we take that UK to Brazil path as an example and then assume that there is one Sporadic-E hop of about 1200 kms to the south. This is what the prediction looks like for the latitude of Spain to Brazil ...

From this latitude, openings above 20 MHz are much more likely.

In Summary.... There will be plenty of openings on 28 MHz over the next six months but it will require some degree of dedication and actually spending time on the band.

If you're in the UK or northern Europe then don't expect East-West openings on 28 MHz to the USA or Japan. Think North-South. Listen for beacons or FT8 signals from Spain or Italy to see if there is suitable Sporadic-E to link to openings to Africa and South America further south.

If your interest is in 21 MHz or 24 MHz then the above largely still holds true although it will get easier the lower in frequency you go.