An international panel of scientists co-chaired by NOAA and NASA release reports every few months on the state of the sunspot cycle. This is probably the most accurate source in terms of what is likely to happen.
Back in April of 2019, the previous report predicted that the solar minimum would likely happen between July 2019 and September 2020. In the most recent report dated December 2019, they are predicting that the minimum has been pushed back. They predict that it will now occur sometime between November 2019 and October 2020.
As for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, they are still predicting that it will be similar in intensity to the last solar cycle with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The peak is predicted to occur between November 2024 and March 2026.
Original press release...
SOLAR CYCLE 25 FORECAST UPDATE published: Monday, December 09, 2019 22:30 UTC The NOAA/NASA co-chaired, international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24. Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7th longest on record (11.4 years).
1 comment:
These NOAA/NASA 'forecasts' are well-intentioned, but almost always wrong! They seem to only issue their forecasts when 'comfort zone' points like solar minimum and maximum look very likely to have been reached - but even those are often judged wrongly.
Overall, there is not remotely enough understanding of the solar dynamo to make reliable predictions. If they are right, it's more luck than anything else.
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