Latest forecast for the next Solar Cycle - Dec 2019

An international panel of scientists co-chaired by NOAA and NASA release reports every few months on the state of the sunspot cycle. This is probably the most accurate source in terms of what is likely to happen.

Back in April of 2019, the previous report predicted that the  solar minimum would likely happen between July 2019 and September 2020. In the most recent report dated December 2019, they are predicting that the minimum has been pushed back. They predict that it will now occur sometime between November 2019 and October 2020.

As for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, they are still predicting that it will be similar in intensity to the last solar cycle with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The peak is predicted to occur between November 2024 and March 2026.

Original press release...
SOLAR CYCLE 25 FORECAST UPDATE published: Monday, December 09, 2019 22:30 UTC The NOAA/NASA co-chaired, international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24. Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7th longest on record (11.4 years).

Signs of the next solar cycle starting...

Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.

At the moment in October of 2019, we are the bottom of the sunspot cycle and conditions on the HF bands are pretty awful. Recent observations of the Sun however show that things are changing.

The image above shows the active regions of the Sun's corona, the outer atmosphere of the Sun. Active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here.

On the 6th of October, two regions with different magnetic polarity were spotted which are part of the next solar cycle.

Back in April, I had a post about a report from NOAA/NASA which said that the end of Cycle 24 and start of Cycle 25 will occur no earlier than July, 2019, and no later than September, 2020. The latest observations tie in with this report.

These observations don't mean that conditions on the HF bands are going to improve all of a sudden. This is a slow process. Over the next year or so, we should begin to see more and more regions with the magnetic polarity of the new solar cycle 25 and fewer with the solar cycle 24 signature.

It's only after we have passed the solar minimum for sure that scientists can pinpoint exactly when it happened.

I would suggest that it will probably be late 2020 before we start to see any real enhancement in the HF bands. Even then, it will be a case of more openings on the likes of 21 MHz rather than 28 MHz.

Links...
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/

Quiet times ahead for the Sun...???

If you have been following the details of the current solar cycle then you'll know that the peak which is supposed to be coming up in 2013 will be pretty low in comparison to other previous peaks. If true then conditions on bands like 6 metres (50 MHz) won't be great...especially for East-West propagation.

Now it seems as if there are signs that the following cycle won't be great either and the sun might be entering a quieter period.

This appeared in a recent article online.........
"For one, there is an east/west river of gas the flows under the surface of the Sun (it can’t be seen directly, but it generates sound waves that travel from it to the surface, revealing its presence). This river comes and goes, but usually forms at mid-latitudes on the Sun and shifts toward the equator as the cycle progresses. As it does so, sunspots form above it. Although the next cycle won’t start for a few years, the river associated with it should already be forming. However, there are no indications it has, making astronomers think the next cycle may be delayed."

The full article can be seen HERE

New Prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24...

Reading through some recent e-mails, I came accross this...

NASA Releases New Predictions for Solar Cycle 24......An international panel of experts -- led by the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA) and sponsored by NASA -- has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle: Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots. "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,". This report clarifies a NOAA report from earlier this month that stated that Solar Cycle 24 would bring "90 sunspots per day on average."

Looking at the date, they are predicting the peak to be between 80 and 100 sunspots per month at the peak. So what does this mean? Let's compare it to previous cycles...

It looks as if it will be similiar but slightly lower than the peak of 1968/9 but worse than the last 3 peaks. What does this mean in practical terms?

In reality, near the sunspot maximum, the HF bands (14 MHz to 28 MHz) will be hopping and there will be worldwide dx regardless of how bad it turns out to be. The big issue is what will propogation on 50 MHz be like?

I remember reading before that the peak of 1968 was supposed to be pretty poor for DX on 6 metres with slim pickings via F2. If it turns out as predicted, I'd expect that there will be plenty of F2 type openings North-South from say Europe to Africa and South America. The big problem is will the MUF get high enough to support East-West type openings from say Europe to North America?....or Europe to the Far East? Stations in Southern Europe will probably work loads (EA/CT/I/etc) but what about those above 50 deg North?