15,000km+ opening on 50 MHz between SE Australia and Europe - 14th July 2021

Wednesday 14th July 2021: Openings on the 50 MHz between Europe and Australia near the bottom of the solar cycle are supposed to be 'special'... i.e. a rare occurrence... something that doesn't happen very often.

And yet the 14th of July saw yet another opening. I'm in two minds at this stage if I should be even recording these events are they seem so common? I need these openings to stop soon so I can take a break! 😂😂

The map above shows the extent of the opening from VK2XN in New South Wales in the SE of Australia. You'll notice that opening on the 14th seems to be mainly to the south-east of Europe. The longest path on FT8 was to IS0AWZ in Sardinia at 16,334kms.

I found the map for VK2OO near Sydney to be of interest...

Notice how the 50 MHz went up as far as Finland. Also notice how VK2OO also had what seemed to be a big opening to Japan at about 04:00 UTC (~8000kms) and this was followed later by the opening to Europe around 07:00 UTC. It has all the appearance of TEP (Trans-Equatorial Propagation).

As far as I can tell, the opening from Europe seemed to be largely confined to VK2 and VK3 stations in New South Wales and Victoria in the SE of Australia.

These are the spots from the DX Cluster... 

VK2WJ 50313.0 UR0MC 07:36 14 Jul FT8 QF56ss -> KN99ea Ukraine

VK3OER 50313.0 LY2IJ 07:20 14 Jul 071830 -10 0.2 2342 ~ CQ DX L Lithuania

LY2IJ 50313.0 VK3OER 07:17 14 Jul TU QSO! Australia

DO5OT 50313.0 VK3DUT 07:13 14 Jul JO62WL<ES>QF32VF ft8 TNX new o Australia

LY2IJ 50313.0 VK3ZYC 07:04 14 Jul TU QSO! QF31<>KO25 Australia

IK6DTB 50313.0 VK2XN 06:35 14 Jul TNX 73 Australia

SV2JAO 50313.0 VK2XN 06:12 14 Jul kn10<es>qf59 Australia

VK3ZAZ 50313.0 S57RR 05:49 14 Jul FT8, CQ vk Slovenia

VK3OT-@ 50313.5 S57RR 05:46 14 Jul into vk3 Slovenia

VK3OER 50313.0 4O6AH 05:31 14 Jul 052700 -14 0.2 922 ~ CQ DX 4 Montenegro

VK3DUT-@ 50313.0 406AH 05:31 14 Jul -17 rx only Montenegro

VK3DUT-@ 50313.0 I6WJB 05:30 14 Jul -18 rx only Italy

SV1DH 50313.0 VK3BD 05:30 14 Jul CQ -16db and gone Australia

FT8 paths for Australian stations on 50 MHz to Europe are shown below...

18,000km opening on 50 MHz between Europe and Australia - 7th July 2021

Wed 7th July 2021: There was yet another opening on the 50 MHz band between Australia and Europe on the 7th of July except this one seemed a bit more extensive. Looking at the PSK Reporter website, I found at least 15 Australian stations active for the opening.

These are the spots from the DX Cluster and they seem to indicate that as per usual, all of the activity was on the FT8 digital mode.

Spotter Freq. DX Time Info Country

VK3OT-@ 50315.0 G3NSM 06:30 07 Jul decoded on ft8n England
VK3OT-@ 50314.0 UR0MC 06:13 07 Jul CQ VK FT8 Ukraine
VK3OT-@ 50313.0 UT7QF 06:11 07 Jul TNX QSO 73 Ukraine

SP6NVN 50313.0 VK5PJ 07:17 07 Jul -23 db hrd Australia
S57RR-@ 50323.5 VK3ZL 06:47 07 Jul FT8 -19dB JN65um<>QF22 TU! Australia
OH7KM 50313.0 VK2OO 05:57 07 Jul cq -20 Australia 

DG1VL 50313.0 VK4HJ 05:22 07 Jul FT8 -13dB 469Hz Australia
S57RR-@ 50315.3 VK2EFM 05:20 07 Jul FT8 -14dB JN65um<>QF56 CQ Australia

The longest path I could find was 18,009kms between VK2EFM near Sydney and EA1YV in the NW of Spain. That is only 2000kms short of the maximum distance without going to the long path (20,000kms+).

Q. Are there more 50 MHz openings to Australia from Europe??? ...There does seem to be an extraordinary number of openings from Australia to Europe at the moment on the 50 MHz band. This is after all a VHF band, it's not HF.

Is this year exceptional? 

Are there a lot more openings than usual?

Were these 50MHz openings happening in 2020 and I just didn't notice them?

I reported on one opening in July of 2019 and that seemed to me at the time to be very unusual. I think if I had noticed all of these openings in 2020, I would have written about it. If it was say from the SE of Australia to the Ukraine then I may not have said anything but any opening on 50 MHz from Australia to Western Europe is always special.

* * * 

FT8 reports on 50 MHz between Australia and Europe from the PSK Reporter website from the 7th of July 2021 are shown below...

Another 50 MHz opening between Australia & Europe - Mon 31st May 2021

Following on from the weak opening on the 29th of May, there was another 50 MHz opening between Europe and Australia on Monday the 31st of May 2021.

The above map from the PSK Reporter website shows the almost 15,000km path that was open for VK4MA on the east coast of Australia.

SP4K 6m FT8 14993 km 07:43:30
LY2BAW 6m FT8 14683 km 07:46:59

***

There was a much bigger opening from VK4ABW on the north coast but he is also quite a bit closer with distances just over 12,000kms.

VK4ABW SM7CAD 6m FT8 12650 km 09:11:56
VK4ABW YL2CZ 6m FT8 12300 km 09:11:59
VK4ABW OG3G 6m FT8 12228 km 08:43:59
VK4ABW OH1MN 6m FT8 12199 km 08:44:29
VK4ABW OG2A 6m FT8 12147 km 08:43:59
VK4ABW LY2BAW 6m FT8 12144 km 08:46:57
VK4ABW OH7KM 6m FT8 12113 km 08:22:30
VK4ABW YL2II 6m FT8 12104 km 09:12:59
VK4ABW OH3SR 6m FT8 12091 km 08:22:26
VK4ABW YL2CP 6m FT8 12090 km 09:11:59
OH3JR VK4ABW 6m FT8 12081 km 08:36:44
VK4ABW ES5PC 6m FT8 11999 km 08:44:59

***

The longest paths came from the south-east of Australia. VK3OT was hearing the Ukraine.

UR5LAK VK3OT 6m FT8 14102 km 05:57:11
UR0MC VK3OT 6m FT8 13989 km 06:02:11

***

The longest path seems to have been between VK3ZL and SP4K in Poland at 15,459kms

SP4K VK3ZL 6m FT8 15459 km 05:20:44
UR0MC VK3ZL 6m FT8 14163 km 06:41:44

***

Propagation Mode: We're back to the same question again... How do 50 MHz signals from Europe reach Australia near the bottom of the sunspot cycle?

The easy 'go to' answer was that it was multi-hop Sporadic-E, case closed. 

The problem I'm starting to have with this is down to probabilities. 

Take SP4K in Poland. What are the chances of one hop Sp-E in the direction of Australia capable of supporting a 50 MHz signal? It's late May, it's the Summer Sp-E season so it's pretty high. 

Two hops?... What is the probability of getting two Sp-E regions spaced at just the right distance to allow a double hop at 50MHz? The probability is obviously lower.

Follow that same logic and apply it to 3 hops, 4 hops and so on. By the time we get to 15,459kms, we're probably looking at 8 hops. 

What is the probability of getting eight Sporadic-E clouds capable of supporting 50 MHz spaced at just the right distance from each other... all the way from Europe to Australia?

And if that probability wasn't low enough, what then is the probability of 8 hop Sp-E on 50 MHz from Europe to Australia on two out of three days?

I think the probability is now so low that there must be some other answer. Perhaps TEP (Trans-Equatorial Propagation) from Australia to China accounts for a large part of it? Some other propagation mode?

I'm not sure the simple 'It must be multi-hop Sporadic-E' adds up anymore.

Unusual 50 MHz opening from Australia to Europe - Wed 24th July 2019

Over the last few weeks, there have been multiple openings from Europe to Japan at 50 MHz as stations make use of digital modes like FT8 to dig weak signals out of the noise. Most of these contacts are in the region of 9,000 to 10,000 kms which suggest multi-hop Sporadic-E was the likely propagation mode.

On Wednesday the 24th of July 2019, there was a very unusual opening on 50 MHz between Europe and New South Wales in SE Australia.

Here are some of the send/receive reports from PSK Reporter for the Australian stations on the 50 MHz band...

VK3ZL...

A successful FT8 contact was made between VK3ZL and EI3KD in Ireland, a distance of 17,375 kms. This seems to have been the longest contact of the day.

VK3BD...

VK3ANP...

VK3ZYC...

VK3EW...

The opening from Europe to SE Australia seemed to be from about 07:09 UTC to about 08:20 UTC.

The graphic below shows where the sun was shining at 07:30 UTC.

The opening seemed to coincide with sunset in SE Australia.

Some notes....
1) Solar..... The solar flux was way down at 67, the sunspot number was zero and there was no sign of any type of enhancement due to a flare. It's hard to imagine there was any normal type F2 propagation which might be seen around the peak of the sunspot cycle.

2) Japan..... The opening from Europe to Australia seemed to coincide with an opening from Europe to Japan. S57RR in Slovenia was on the send/receive list for five of the six VK3 stations and this is what the 6m map was like for him on the 24th...

3) Multi-hop Sporadic-E ???.... The distances worked from Europe to Australia were in the region of 16,000 to 17,400 kms. If it was simple multi-hop Sporadic E, it would require something like eight to nine hops. What are the chances of this many Sporadic-E hops? I find it hard to believe it's possible.

4) Winter..... It's worth noting that it's winter in Australia and this is not their Sporadic-E season. There seems to be no sign that the VK3 stations were hearing any other stations via Sporadic-E, just the opening to Europe.

Theory?...... Just a thought and I'm putting it out there for others to consider. Is it possible there was TEP (Transequatorial propagation) opening from SE Australia to an area SE of Japan and then became skewed via Sporadic-E? The multi-hop Sporadic-E opening from Europe also got to this region in the Pacific?

It's possible the TEP path may have been a bit more westerly from Australia to an area closer to China.

Perhaps it's grasping at straws for an explanation but I find it just as feasible as expecting 8-9 Sporadic-E hops to line up in a row at 50 MHz for the shorter direct path.

The key difference between the two paths would of course be if the beam headings for all parties were the most direct short path ones or if they were skewed. Unless someone is using a long Yagi, it may not be so obvious at 50 MHz.

All good material for debate of course but probably impossible to prove one way or the other.

Addendum : See message below from Brian, VK3BD (Added 12th Aug 2019)...